It looks like Ireland is finally on the road to economic recovery after 6 hard years of recession since 2008. Forecasts of Irish recovery published by the EU Commission in May of this year anticipates GDP growth for 2013, 2014 and 2015 to be -0.3%, 1.7% and 3.0% respectively. The Bank of Ireland in their latest July 2014 bulletin are even more optimistic giving comparable figures of 0.2%, 2.8% and 3.4% respectively.
The ESRI in their Summer Quarterly Economic Commentary published yesterday are even more optimistic than Bank of Ireland giving comparable figures of 0.2%, 3.0% and 3.7% for GDP growth. Regardless of whose figures you believe the underlying message is clear - the Irish economy is well on the road to very positive recovery in the years ahead!
Much of the growth to date has been driven by exports of manufacturing products. It is therefore confirmed that it is the engineering profession who have been driving our economic recovery in recent years in IT, pharma (despite the patent cliff), machinery and medical devices.
In July Ireland's manufacturing sector recorded its 14th consecutive month of growth as output hit a three month high and the UK was cited as a key source of new business. This is gratifying news and hope that the Autumn 2013 EGA Panel Discussion with An Taoiseach on Job Creation in Manufacturing might have helped to highlight this important sector led by engineers. We cannot be complacent however as there are still fiscal difficulties in the eurozone area with growth slowing in Spain and Greece and Italy re-entering recession this month.
The ESRI is predicting that domestic consumption in Ireland which has floundered since the crash would rise 2% this year on the back of improving conditions in the labour market. It is also noted that retail sales are strong so far this year with sales of cars and household goods both on the up.They also forecast a need for 54,000 new homes in Dublin over the next 7 years. The Construction Industry Federation (CIF) respond that only 2,000 new homes will be built in Dublin this year.
Even our unemployment rate is starting to fall from a high of 14.8% in 2011 down to 13.1% in 2013 and expected 11.5% this year. It is forecast by ESRI to be below 10% in 2015. While unemployment remains stubbornly high, at the same time with the need for more housing particularly in Dublin region there will be a severe skills shortage for construction and civil engineering trades and professionals in the years ahead.
House prices in Ireland are 27% undervalued currently according to the ESRI. Price increases of 16% in Dublin and 6% nationally were recorded in 2013.
The EU Commission warn though that Ireland is vulnerable to the continuing effect of legacy debt particularly in the SME sector. It also warned that Ireland's high dependence on imported energy could leave the state particularly susceptible to changes in energy prices arising from the Ukraine crisis noting that Ireland imports about 85% of our energy needs. This situation will of course change dramatically with the commissioning of the new Shell Corrib Gas Field in 2015 which has a capacity to supply approx 60% of Ireland's needs for a period of some 20 years.
The ESRI in their Summer Quarterly Economic Commentary published yesterday are even more optimistic than Bank of Ireland giving comparable figures of 0.2%, 3.0% and 3.7% for GDP growth. Regardless of whose figures you believe the underlying message is clear - the Irish economy is well on the road to very positive recovery in the years ahead!
Much of the growth to date has been driven by exports of manufacturing products. It is therefore confirmed that it is the engineering profession who have been driving our economic recovery in recent years in IT, pharma (despite the patent cliff), machinery and medical devices.
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| Image courtesy of Shutterstock |
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| An Taoiseach with the panel of speakers on Job Creation in Manufacturing in UCD October 2013 L to R: Philip O'Doherty, E&I Engineering, Martin Mc Vicar, Combilift, Edmond Harty, Dairmaster and Ian Quinn Creganna Taxtc Medical |
The ESRI is predicting that domestic consumption in Ireland which has floundered since the crash would rise 2% this year on the back of improving conditions in the labour market. It is also noted that retail sales are strong so far this year with sales of cars and household goods both on the up.They also forecast a need for 54,000 new homes in Dublin over the next 7 years. The Construction Industry Federation (CIF) respond that only 2,000 new homes will be built in Dublin this year.
Even our unemployment rate is starting to fall from a high of 14.8% in 2011 down to 13.1% in 2013 and expected 11.5% this year. It is forecast by ESRI to be below 10% in 2015. While unemployment remains stubbornly high, at the same time with the need for more housing particularly in Dublin region there will be a severe skills shortage for construction and civil engineering trades and professionals in the years ahead.
House prices in Ireland are 27% undervalued currently according to the ESRI. Price increases of 16% in Dublin and 6% nationally were recorded in 2013.
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| Image courtesy of Shutterstock |
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